The Internet Video Hype
After Apples Video iPod announcment yesterday came an announcment by MTV to have a new channel - mtvU Uber (or do the mean Über? is this the start of a germanificiation of english?) exclusively distributed over broadband and its streaming and its free as in beer. They run some of the same shows as normal MTV but also air productions that are influenced by "college students watching Über". The show is only available in Windows Media 9 format with all the accompanied DRM crap (why the show is for free?) and therefore not watchable on any mac or iPod. Next to Apples announcment and this and a gazilion of other broadcasts and videos on the net it seems the net will replace TV sooner then most think. The only problem right now is infrastructure at the server ends (possibly the best bet on the market beeing Apples iTMS right now with an already successfully distribution model that can handle lots of traffic) the tools - again the iPod with its current market share having a head start over other portable movie players and a STANDARDIZED CODEC. The last one seems the most important in the battle over ultimate dominance of the newTV. Open standards are nice - like MPEG4 but by no means is this the standard yet set on the net - there is still divX not to be counted out and the notorious Windows Media Format 9 with its crappy "I call home to tell big brother what you are watching" DRM. The market will decide but all bets go in direction MPEG4 H.264 right now as the soon to be number one digital movie player will ONLY play this (and normal Mpeg4) setting a defacto standard that the whole industry will follow. I already see most vloggers asking "how can I convert my .wmv files to .m4v (yes thats the new official ending for MPG4). What gives? I predict that the next year will see a shake out in Standards with only Microsoft trying to hold on with wmv undtil the end and fail and the open standard MPEG4 embraced by Apple will survive (expect to see the first illegal movie torrents use h.264 in the next weeks - the "Jack the Rippa" entry from two days ago) then you see most - if not all TV shows be available on some distribution channel or the other (again expect Apple be the number one here as they have already set the standard). After that we will see Hollywood movies (given the bandwidth rises during the next year for the majority of households) for cheap download ($4.99 and you own it) and then have all major news broadcasts switch over (maybe even to late to have the same impact as independ news broadcasters have gathered by then - one can wish right?) and then WHY IN EARTH WOULD I WANT TO WATCH TV? Everything is available on demand when I want it - advertising only in those things that are free of charge and I can choose not only from major TV stations but from a unlimited amount of sources to get my information and entertainment. I proclaim hereby TV is dead in less then a year (or are at the point of no reanimation). And seeing as how Apple is positioning itself right now - giving the independ a voice with video podcasts (and even soon the option to earn money!) and the big production studios a new way to make revenue for things they already have financed through advertising on TV they have the head start already and its hard to stop them.